Apr 07, 2022
In Why start a distillery?
Editor's Guide: Today's world is changing too fast, and no one can be sure how it will develop in the future, just as people can't imagine how prosperous live-streaming e-commerce is today. How will the live broadcast e-commerce industry, which has grown up under the telemarketing list epidemic, develop in the future? The author of this article expresses his opinion on this and shares it with you. Einstein said: "I never think about the future because it comes too fast!" Now that we talk about the "future", let me briefly talk about my thoughts on the "future of a certain industry" in the past ten years: During my more than ten years of retail e-commerce career and industry research, I went from being keen to predict the future of the industry, to discovering that the future is elusive and no longer talking about the future, and finally returning to a rational approach. Through the collection of data and a large amount of information , we can analyze the future of the industry more rigorously, scientifically and logically. During telemarketing list this process, I thought and summarized three "key factors" that will affect the future of the industry: technology, capital, and policy. I'm more used to calling them "the three big black boxes that affect the future" , because until the "future" accident doesn't come, I don't know what the real reason is! Technological variables, capital decisions, and policy formulations are constantly affecting the future of an industry. Even if you are in it, it is difficult to collect all the information to make judgments about the future. For example, a top-level and senior technical master still cannot master all technologies, and it is difficult to understand all technical routes and results, as well as changes in applications, markets and consumption habits caused by technology. Technology is complex, and telemarketing list capital and policy sophistication is even more so. The combination of these three complex variables makes the future blurry! To give a simple example, after Jack Ma proposed new retail in 2015, basically Ali and JD as well as practitioners, industry experts, industry media, technology companies, investors, etc., all gathered in the new retail field, and unmanned shelves appeared.